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0.5% industrial growth in July shows signs of double-dip recession for Indian economy

By TIOL News Service

NEW DELHI, SEPT 13, 2014: AS per the latest CSO data, the slowdown in the Indian economy has further accelerated contrary to the optimism demonstrated by the Union Finance Minsiter. The quick estimates indicate that the industrial production in the month July grew only by 0.5% as compared to the level in the month of July 2013. The cumulative growth for the period April-July 2014-15 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 3.3%.

The Indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of July 2014 stand at 118.5, 180.8 and 183.8 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 2.1%, (-) 1.0% and 11.7% as compared to July 2013. The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-July 2014-15 over the corresponding period of 2013-14 has been 2.8%, 2.3% and 11.4% respectively.

In terms of industries, twelve (12) out of the twenty two (22) industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of July 2014 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. The industry group ‘Other transport equipment' has shown the highest positive growth of 17.1%, followed by 12.3% in ‘Basic metals' and 11.8% in ‘Other non-metallic mineral products'. On the other hand, the industry group ‘Radio, TV and communication equipment & apparatus' has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 58.3%, followed by (-) 26.0% in ‘Office, accounting & computing machinery' and (-) 17.4% in ‘Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c .'.

As per Use-based classification, the growth rates in July 2014 over July 2013 are 7.6% in Basic goods, (-) 3.8% in Capital goods and 2.6% in Intermediate goods (Statement III).  The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of (-) 20.9% and 2.9% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being (-) 7.4%.

Some of the important items showing high positive growth during the current month over the same month in previous year include ‘Stainless/ alloy steel' (108.7%), ‘Relays, Fuses and Switchgears' (72.9%), ‘Vitamins' (68.9%), ‘Air Conditioner (Room)' (58.3%), ‘Plastic Machinery Incl. Moulding Machinery' (45.9%)', ‘ Ayurvedic Medicaments' (39.0%), ‘Fruit Pulp' (37.8%), ‘Scooter and Mopeds' (35.0%), ‘Fasteners (Excl. Zip-Fasteners)' (28.2%), ‘Colour TV Sets' (27.3%), ‘Three-Wheelers (including passenger & goods carrier)' (22.2%) and ‘ Biaxially Oriented Polypropylene (BOPP) film' (21.3%).

Some of the other important items showing high negative growth are: ‘Telephone Instruments (incl. Mobile Phones & Accessories)' [(-) 67.2%], ‘Sugar' [(-) 60.3%],  ‘Aluminium Conductor' [(-) 46.1%], ‘Computers' [(-) 36.9%], ‘Generator/ Alternator' [(-) 36.9%], ‘Sacking' [(-) 36.0%], ‘Gems and Jewellery'      [(-) 32.2%], ‘Sugar Machinery' [(-) 31.1%], ‘Wood Furniture' [(-) 30.3%] and ‘Cigarettes' [(-) 23.8%].

Along with the Quick Estimates of IIP for the month of July 2014, the indices for June 2014 have undergone the first revision and those for April 2014 have undergone the final revision in the light of the updated data received from the source agencies. It may be noted that these revised indices (first revision) in respect of June 2014 shall undergo final (second) revision along with the release of IIP for the month of September 2014.


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