GDP - First Revised Estimates pegs growth rate at 4.5%; Per Capital Income up only by 2.1%
By TIOL News Service
NEW DELHI, FEB 1, 2014: AS per the latest CSO data on First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13, the Indian economy has grown only by 4.5% as against a growth of 6.7% in the year 2011-12. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs 54.8 lakh crore as against Rs 52.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 registering a growth of 4.5 per cent during the year as against a growth of 6.7 per cent in the year 2011-12. At current prices, GDP in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs 93.9 lakh crore as against Rs 83.9 lakh crore in 2011-12, showing an increase of 11.9 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 15.8 per cent in the previous year.
The growth rate of 4.5 per cent in the GDP during 2012-13 has been achieved due to growth in financing, insurance, real estate & business services (10.9 %), transport, storage and communication (6%) and community, social and personal services (5.3 %). At constant prices, in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), agriculture, forestry & fishing has shown a growth of 1.4 per cent while mining declined by 2.2 per cent during 2012-13 as against the growth of 5 and 0.1 per cent, respectively during the year 2011-12. The growth of secondary sector (manufacturing, electricity, gas & water supply and construction) is 1.2 per cent and that of tertiary (services) sector is 7 per cent during 2012-13, as against a growth of 8.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.
Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) at current prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs 30.4 lakh crore as against Rs 28.2 lakh crore in 2011-12 , constituting 30.1 per cent of GDP at market prices as against 31.3 per cent in the previous year. The decrease in the rate of GDS in the current year compared to previous year has mainly been due to the decrease in the rates of savings of household sector in physical assets from 15.8 per cent to 14.8 per cent and private corporate sector from 7.3 per cent to 7.1 per cent. In absolute terms, the saving of the household sector has increased from Rs 20.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs 22.1 lakh crore in 2012-13, increasing by 7.7 per cent during the year. The saving of private corporate sector has gone up by 8.3 per cent from ` 6.6 lakh crore in 2011-12 to ` 7.1 lakh crore in 2012-13 and the saving of public sector has gone up by 6.0 per cent from Rs 1.1 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs 1.2 lakh crore in 2012-13.
Gross Capital Formation (including valuables) has increased from Rs 32 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs 35.2 lakh crore in 2012-13 at current prices and it increased from Rs 21.8 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs 23 lakh crore in 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) prices. The rate of Gross Capital Formation (including valuables) at current prices is 34.8 per cent in 2012-13 as against 35.5 per cent in 2011-12. The rate of Gross Capital Formation (including valuables) at constant (2004-05) prices is 38.9 per cent in 2012-13 as against 38.8 per cent in 2011-12 .
The per capita income (per capita Net National Income at factor cost) in real terms is estimated at Rs 38,856 for 2012-13 as against Rs 38,048 in 2011-12, registering an increase of 2.1 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 5.1 per cent during the previous year. The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs 67,839 in 2012-13 as against Rs 61,855 for the previous year depicting a growth of 9.7 per cent, as against an increase of 14.5 per cent during the previous year.
In the compilation of the First Revised estimates for the manufacturing sector, the growth rate in Index of Industrial Production has been used for the year 2012-13. Subsequently, in the compilation of the Second Revised Estimates of the registered manufacturing sector, which are scheduled for release in January, 2015, the data of Annual Survey of Industries 2012-13 shall become available and hence would be incorporated. The divergence between ASI growth and IIP growth in the recent years has been resulting in major revisions in the GVA estimates not only from this sector but also from the other dependent sectors.
The GDP estimates of the year 2011-12 have been revised by incorporating the latest available data. The growth rate, which had earlier been stated as 6.2% in January 2013, has now been revised to 6.7%. This revision has been largely due to the replacement of IIP based estimates of manufacturing sector, by the provisional results of ASI 2011-12. Further, actual expenditure of governments, both central and states, have been adopted now compared to the Revised Budget Estimates used at the time of First Revised Estimates of 2011-12.
The growth rate of GDP for the year 2010-11 has been revised from 9.3% to 8.9% mostly due to the revised data received from the State Directorates of Economics & Statistics after the previous release made in January 2013. Another cause for this decrease in growth rate is the difference between the provisional and final results of ASI 2010-11.
